Post by Haberino on Jan 4, 2012 15:39:27 GMT -5
THE MOST VALUABLE PLAYERS IN BBS: 16-1
Some quick honorable mentions:
-Earl Monroe - a nice young 2, but they're a dime a dozen right now. He'll have to develop some more before he can crack this list.
-Bob Netolicky - really impressive production from a rookie. If I'd seen him, I would've put him in the 40s.
-Carl Cole - I'm skeptical, but if he's actually turned that corner as a scorer, he belongs.
-Bob Boozer - Production is cooling off, but he probably belongs on this list. I tend to overlook his midrange and shotblocking. Oopsies.
-Jon McGlocklin - Value isn't there because of the ratings, but what a machine. 54.4% FG, 87.5% FT a year ago, and he never turns it over. Still on his rookie deal, too.
-Cazzie Russell - Nice young two, but again, like 20 guys can give you his scoring, and he's a poor rebounder.
-Maurice McHartley- See above, basically, minus the rebounding issue. Might be here if he were starting, though I doubt that, given his poor midrange.
-Connie Dierking - Would've made the cut if not for the major falloff in FG%. 31 and expiring, too.
-Bill Bradley - Remains to be seen if he's all ratings and no production, but he's two years removed from a rookie season that you really can't ignore. A horrible rebounder though.
-Jimmy Jones - He probably has handling issues, but the scoring ratings from a rookie PG are really hard to overlook. A potential, too.
-Dave Bing - You know he can be an above average, and you know he has potential. The turnovers are terrible and he doesn't really seem elite at anything. As a projected 2, he doesn't sniff this list. If he can handle the 1, his value will soar.[/i]
ALSO 16. Guy Rodgers
PG 32 6'0'' 197 B+ A- A- A- C D
PG 32 6'0'' 197 B+ A- A- A- C D
Shit! What a stud. I don’t really want to dig up that one thread where everyone but me was wrong about Guy, so suffice to say that everyone but me was wrong about Guy. I’ve been right about so few things these last five seasons ☹. Anyway, holy shit: 30 points on 51/93/46. He’s 31 and expiring, but wow, not many point guards have produced so well in league history. Add in elite rebounding from a point guard and I can’t justify letting the age and contract significantly deplete his value. Also I miscounted and had to have two 16s.
15.Walt Frazier
PG 22 6'4'' 200 B B- B+ A- C A
PG 22 6'4'' 200 B B- B+ A- C A
Clyde hasn’t developed enough to really pin his value down, but he has the makings of a superstar PG. He projects to be a multidimensional scorer, a good rebounder, and an excellent defender. Obviously the percentages aren’t there yet, but that’s mostly of no concern. I’d consider his development a near-lock, the caveat being the turnovers. Luckily, guys with sub-3 turnovers as a game are generally manageable through upgrades and potential. Once that kink’s out of the way, Clyde’s value should skyrocket.
14. Rick Barry
SG 23 6'7'' 208 A- A- C B+ C+ B
SG 23 6'7'' 208 A- A- C B+ C+ B
The ratings says he’s above average; the numbers say he’s dominant. A top ball-theft. One of the most efficient and productive scorers in the league. Excellent rebounding for a shooting guard. Low turnovers. And he’s 23 with another year of his rookie contract to come. There are a lot of twos ranked beneath him who do some things just as well, if not better than Barry, but he’s the young one – the one with the most room to grow – and the one with zero flaws.
13. Hal Greer
SG 31 6'2'' 184 A- A B+ A B- D
SG 31 6'2'' 184 A- A B+ A B- D
An absolute beast, but a 31 year old, expiring one. Hal’s one of the all-time great scorers and ball thefts, and that’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Still, he’s looking at a six or seven year deal that will likely approach 150 million dollars. Nobody likes dishing that out, especially not to a 32 year-old. He nonetheless has four or five years left as one of the best players in the league.
12. Billy Cunnigham
PF 24 6'6'' 218 B+ C C+ A- A- B
PF 24 6'6'' 218 B+ C C+ A- A- B
Cunningham has room to grow, but he’s already one of the better players in the league. He’s a top five rebounder and shotblocker, and his offense is coming to be on par with those facets of his game. He gets to the line around 7 times a game and hits over 91% of his tries. He also keeps his turnovers low. Holy shit Andrew Luck’s voice is so weird. He needs to improve his FG%, but he’s still got good TCs and upgrades ahead, and when it gets around 50%, few guys are going to be on his level. I put him right around Ho because they’re pretty similar. One is a lot younger but the other’s just the much better version, and I’ll take the latter, which a word I hate using. Also Spence misspelled his last name and that’s really not alright.
11. Oscar Robertson
SF 29 6'5'' 205 A- A- C+ A- B- D
SF 29 6'5'' 205 A- A- C+ A- B- D
As dynamic as they come (Ho Walker doesn’t have his range), with dominant scoring to drive the point home. Oscar’s rebounding and shotblocking have skyrocketed with the move from point guard. Perhaps most importantly, his turnovers have also plummeted. Chicago spreads the wealth, so his scoring is down, but I won’t pretend that alters his value. Oscar would’ve been top three a few years ago, but you can’t overlook the age and contract – Oscar’s got that perfect storm of turning 30 and expiring in his near future, and it tarnishes his value a bit.
10. Zelmo Beaty
C 28 6'9'' 235 B+ C D+ A- A- B
C 28 6'9'' 235 B+ C D+ A- A- B
Beaty’s a hard guy to rank because it’s difficult to assess how important a contract is to a guy’s value. Basically, he’s a step down from Lucas, Wilt, and Ho, but he’s also on probably the best contract in the deal, and it’s good for five seasons. For example, while I wouldn’t mind paying, Wilt what he’s due, right now, Beaty’s three years younger, earning around 10 million less, and outperforming Wilt offensively. He’s also largely the same player as Lucas, only Lucas makes a lot more and expires sooner. And yet I really don’t have any clue which end of a one for one deal I’d prefer to be on.
9. Wilt Chamberlain
C 31 7'2'' 296 A- C C+ A- A D
C 31 7'2'' 296 A- C C+ A- A D
Wilt’s having a down year offensively, presumably because of a flawed DC and not because his scoring regressed significantly in TC. He remains excellent everywhere, and is enjoying career best shotblocking and rebounding tallies. However, 31 year-olds in contract years generally scare off suitors – Wilt’s talent is tops, but the fears of either losing him in free agency or locking him up an aging player to a massive deal are definite setbacks to Wilt’s value. He's in the top ten because I think he's still capable of the production from recent seasons, and if that's the case, he's still the best player in the league.
8. Willis Reed
C 25 6'9'' 241 A- C F+ A A- B
C 25 6'9'' 241 A- C F+ A A- B
To my eyes, Reed’s on pace to be Thurmond. They’re eerily similar, for now: dominant defenders (stats and otherwise) and rebounders with elite midrange and low turnovers. With Thurmond’s jump in inside scoring and Reed’s likely free agency ahead, Thurmond gets the value nod, but CC is the type to make sure Reed gets every upgrade possible, and Reed was such a better scorer than Thurmond was a year ago that I get the feeling Reed will work his way past Nate.
7. Horace Walker
PF 29 6'4'' 219 A C+ C- A- A- D
PF 29 6'4'' 219 A C+ C- A- A- D
Ho’s doing five combined steals + blocks a night; he’s a small forward with a rebound percentage probably above 20. He’s fourth in the league at getting to the line and shoots nearly 88% from it. A stat line of 28/9, 2.2 SPG, 2.8 BPG, 1.8 TPG with 49% FG speaks for itself, though. Here’s more: he’s on the right side of 30 and locked up for two seasons after this one. Injuries robbed him of his relevance last year and Jerry Lucas’ departure likely robbed him of overall household name status, but hardly anyone is as dynamic.
6. Chet Walker
SF 27 6'6'' 215 A A- C- B- B+ B
SF 27 6'6'' 215 A A- C- B- B+ B
Continuing the theme of insanely valuable players OKC has needlessly dealt, Chet Walker isn’t Dean Hollis, but he's close. In fact, upgrade his three point shooting and he might just get there. He’s transitioned seamlessly to the 4, where he’s proven an unmatched scorer and rebounder. Chet’s defensive rating is a deterrent, but the stats are there, and 34 points with the efficiency of a shooting guard – a great-handling one at that – with 12 rebounds a night from a 27 year-old on a long-term deal nets Walker massive value. One concern – the Heat have excellent rebounders at the 3 and 5, and yet their rebounding margin is a less than stellar +1. A quick glance at Miami’s boxes turns up a mixed bag of rebound margins for Walker, but he’s gotten exposed enough time to constitute a pattern of bad rebounding against stronger bigs.
5. John Havlicek
SG 27 6'5'' 209 B A+ B+ A C+ A
SG 27 6'5'' 209 B A+ B+ A C+ A
Havlicek’s got some of the prettiest ratings around, and they translate onto the court. 31 PPG on 48/96/52. Top ten in steals per game. He’s at SF now, but he’d probably still get you 8 RPG from the backcourt. The turnovers aren’t ideal, but they do very little to tarnish his overall brilliance. He’s still young, and he’s locked up for five seasons if you include this one. Lucas gets the edge just because I prefer the production from a big (shotblocking and all…).
4. Jerry Lucas
PF 27 6'9'' 242 A- C C A- A C
PF 27 6'9'' 242 A- C C A- A C
A near-perfect player, locked up for three years, in his prime, and on the best team in the league. Lucas is elite across the board. It’s almost nitpicking to point out that his handling seems to have taken a dip. The volume’s also down, but that’s for obvious reasons. With more touches he might even be higher. Big Jer has a lot of years ahead as a top five player.
3. Jerry West
PG 29 6'2'' 181 A- A A A C+ B
PG 29 6'2'' 181 A- A A A C+ B
The PG crop has seen better days, but Jerry is one of the best the league has seen. The 1.9 turnovers at such a ridiculous usage rate is stunning. The 33+ PPG from a PG tops even Purnell Jackson’s best seasons (the percentages do, too). And seven rebounds would be nice even from a small forward. Jerry’s the rare guy who pretty much has every strength you could want in a point guard. He’s coming up on 30, and due for a big deal, but I doubt that would keep any worthwhile GM from valuing Jerry above almost any other guy going.
2. Nate Thurmond
C 26 6'11'' 231 B+ C D+ A- A- A
C 26 6'11'' 231 B+ C D+ A- A- A
He was already one of the best rebounder-defenders in the league, with a middling but not horrible offensive game. He shot well from the line and kept low turnovers, but took far too many shots than his 41-44 FG% totals justified. Flash forward one offseason and he looks like one of the best offensive bigs in the league. If we’re talking 25/13 with 3.5 BPG, 49% FG, 83% FT and just 1.3 turnovers a night from a 26 year-old on the first year of a rookie max, Nate might be in the running for most valuable piece in the league. I’m skeptical Nate’s that guy, though – his percentages have dipped, and he had a few woeful performances last sim. If they plateau where they are now, however, Nate might be the most valuable player in the league.
1. Larry Jones
SF 25 6'2'' 183 A A C- A+ C+ B
SF 25 6'2'' 183 A A C- A+ C+ B
Larry’s having a relatively quiet season, which is to say he’s longer playing for Broph. His numbers speak for themselves, though. His turnovers are actually impressive considering the usage rate. He’s an elite rebounder among wings, and when you get to his scoring the conversation is really over. He's one of the best scorers in league history. He's an A+ defender who gets you 3 BPG+SPG a nigh. Oh, and he’s 25 and on that affordable rookie max. Honestly, I hate to put a wing here, but with Larry there's just a combination of so many perfect factors. If Lucas were 25 and on year one of a max, or if Thurmond had a history of his current production, it might be a different story, but for now this is Larry's spot.
