Which Top-5 Draft Slot is the Most Valuable?

[aar]

Formula: I will grade the top-5 picks from best to worst from each draft from the last 10 seasons. The best player gets five points and for every spot off of the #1 spot, that player gets an additional 0.5 points. Each subsequent player gets 4, 3, 2 and 1 respectively and the additional 0.5 points per spot.

For example, if the best player in the draft was selected fourth overall, that player gets 6.5 points (5 for being the best player and 1.5 for being three spots off of #1)

Why? Because the #1 spot will always have the clear advantage in terms of talent and is usually the most successful. With this formula, it weighs certain players dropping in the draft.

2009

Original order

1. New York Knicks - Blake Griffin PF 6'10'' 251 20 B D+ C- B- B A
2. New Jersey Nets - Tyreke Evans PG 6'6'' 220 20 B+ C+ C+ C+ C A
3. Phoenix Suns - Stephen Curry PG 6'3'' 185 21 C A- B- C D+ A
4. Milwaukee Bucks - Ricky Rubio PG 6'4'' 180 20 C+ C+ A- C+ D+ A
5. New York Knicks - Brandon Jennings PG 6'1'' 169 20 C B+ B C C- A

Re-ordered

1) Stephen Curry PG 30 6'3'' 192 C+ A+ A- B+ D+ B - 6 points
2) Ricky Rubio PG 29 6'4'' 189 B- A- A+ A- C- C - 5 points
3) Tyreke Evans PG 29 6'6'' 226 A- A- B+ B- C D - 3 points
4) Blake Griffin PF 29 6'10'' 260 A- C- C A- A C - 2 points
5) Brandon Jennings PG 29 6'1'' 178 B- A A B C C - 1 point

2010

1. Indiana Pacers -John Wall PG 6'4'' 195 20 B+ C+ B- B- C+ A
2. Phoenix Suns - Wesley Johnson SF 6'7'' 205 23 B- B- C B- C+ A
3. Utah Jazz - Greg Monroe PF 6'10'' 247 20 B C- C+ C+ C+ A
4. Chicago Bulls - Gordon Hayward SF 6'8'' 210 20 C+ B+ C+ C C B
5. Philadelphia 76ers - Paul George SF 6'8'' 210 20 C+ B- C- B- C+ A

Re-order

1. John Wall PG 28 6'4'' 198 A- A- A+ A+ C+ D - 5 points
2. Gordon Hayward SF 28 6'8'' 213 B- A+ A- C+ C+ C - 5 points
3. Greg Monroe PF 28 6'10'' 247 B C- C+ B+ A- C - 3 points
4. Paul George SF 28 6'8'' 216 B A- D B+ C C - 2.5 points
5. Wesley Johnson SG 31 6'7'' 217 C+ A- C- B- C+ C - 1 point

2011

1. Chicago - Perry Jones SF 6'11'' 230 20 B C+ C B C+ A
2. Houston - Brandon Knight PG 6'3'' 185 20 B- C+ B- B C- A
3. Atlanta - Derrick Favors PF 6'10'' 246 20 B- D+ D C+ B A
4. Dallas - Travis Leslie SG 6'4'' 202 21 B+ C C- B+ C+ A
5. Detroit - Alec Burks SG 6'6'' 185 20 C+ B- C- B- C- A

Re-ordered

1) Perry Jones SF 27 7'0'' 230 B+ A- B+ A+ B+ C - 5 points
2) Derrick Favors PF 27 6'10'' 249 A- C- D B+ A- D - 4.5 points
3) Brandon Knight PG 27 6'3'' 199 B- A- A A- C C - 3 points
4) Alec Burks SG 27 6'6'' 197 B+ A C A- C B - 2.5 points
5) Travis Leslie SG 28 6'4'' 209 A- B- C A C+ C - 1 point

2012

1. Los Angeles Clippers - Kyrie Irving PG 6'1'' 172 20 C C+ A- C+ D A
2. Los Angeles Lakers - Michael Gilchrist SF 6'7'' 190 19 B- B- C C+ C+ A
3. New Orleans Hornets - Derrick Williams PF 6'9'' 230 20 B C- D+ B C+ A
4. Philadelphia 76ers - Enes Kanter PF 6'10'' 245 20 C+ C D- C+ B A
5. Houston Rockets - Will Barton SG 6'6'' 200 21 B+ B C- C C A

Re-order

1) Kyrie Irving PG 26 6'1'' 175 C+ A A+ A- D C - 5 points
2) Michael Gilchrist SF 25 6'7'' 202 A- A C A A- C - 4 points
3) Derrick Williams PF 26 6'9'' 239 A- C C A- B C - 3 points
4) Will Barton SF 27 6'7'' 213 B+ A D+ C+ C C - 2.5 points
5) Enes Kanter C 26 6'10'' 254 B C C- B+ A- C - 1 point

2013

1. Atlanta - Fab Melo C 7'0'' 274 21 B D D B B- A
2. LA Lakers - Austin Rivers PG 6'4'' 175 20 C+ B C+ B C- A
3. LA Clippers - Jonas Valanciunas C 6'11'' 260 20 B C+ C B- B- A
4. Philadelphia - Quincy Miller PF 6'10'' 225 20 B C B+ C C+ A
5. Houston - Tobias Harris PF 6'10'' 234 21 B C C C+ B- A

Re-order

1. Jonas Valanciunas PF 25 6'11'' 260 A B- C A- A C - 6 points
2. Fab Melo C 26 7'0'' 274 B+ D+ D A- A- A - 4 points
3. Austin Rivers PG 25 6'4'' 179 B- A B A C C - 3 points
4. Quincy Miller SF 25 6'10'' 233 B+ C A- C+ B+ B - 2 points
5. Tobias Harris PF 26 6'11'' 240 B+ C+ C B- B D - 1 points

2014

1 - Memphis Grizzlies - Harrison Barnes SG 22 6'8'' 215 B+ B C B+ C+ A
2 - Memphis Grizzlies - Terrence Jones PF 6'9'' 210 22 B- C+ C B- C+ A
3 - Golden State Warriors - Marquis Teague PG 6'2'' 180 21 C+ B+ B- B- C- A
4 - New Orleans Hornets - Rakeem Christmas C 6'9'' 230 22 B- C- D+ B- B- A
5 - Oklahoma City Thunder - Ray McCallum PG 6'1'' 185 21 C+ C+ C+ B- D A

Re-order

1) Ray McCallum PG 25 6'1'' 188 B A- A A C- C - 7 points
2) Harrison Barnes SF 26 6'8'' 215 A- B+ C- A- B B - 4 points
3) Rakeem Christmas PF 26 6'9'' 233 B+ C- C- A- B B - 3.5 points
4) Marquis Teague PG 25 6'2'' 184 B- A- B+ A- D+ C - 2 points
5) Terrence Jones SF 26 6'9'' 216 B- C+ C A C+ B - 1 point

2015

1. Toronto- Andrew Wiggins C 7'0'' 255 20 B D+ D+ B+ C+ A
2. Philadelphia- Sean O'Mara C 7'1'' 305 19 B+ C- D C+ B- A
3. Indiana- Landry Fields SF 6'7'' 210 27 B+ C+ C B+ B B
4. Memphis- DeMarcus Cousins PF 6'11'' 260 24 B+ C- C- B- B+ A
5. New Orleans- Andre Drummond PF 6'10'' 251 20 C+ D D B- B A

Re-order

1) Sean O'Mara C 22 7'1'' 311 B+ C- D B+ A- C - 5.5 points
2) Andre Drummond PF 23 6'10'' 251 B D C A- A- B - 5.5 points
3) Landry Fields SF 30 6'7'' 210 B+ B+ C+ A- B+ D - 3 points
4) DeMarcus Cousins PF 27 6'11'' 263 A- C- C B+ A- C - 2 points
5) Andrew Wiggins PF 23 7'0'' 261 B C- D+ A- B- B - 1 point

2016

1. Knicks - Evan Dickerson C 7'0'' 225 19 B+ C- D+ C+ C+ A
2. Bucks - Dez Ford C 6'11'' 280 20 B C- D+ C+ B A
3. Cavs - George Hall C 7'1'' 290 22 B+ F D+ C+ B A
4. Pacers - Broderick Hayes PG 6'3'' 200 22 C B- B+ B+ C A
5. Celtics - Li Guo Wang C 7'2'' 260 20 B+ C+ C+ C- C A

Re-order

1) George Hall C 24 7'1'' 290 A- F D+ B+ A- B - 6 points
2) Evan Dickerson C 21 7'0'' 228 A- C- D+ A- B+ A - 4 points
3) Dez Ford PF 22 6'11'' 280 B C- D B B A - 3 points
4) Broderick Hayes PG 24 6'3'' 200 C A- A- A- C B - 2 points
5) Li Guo Wang C 22 7'2'' 260 B+ C+ C+ C- C B - 1 point

2017

1. Pacers- David Walker PF 6'11'' 235 19 A- C C- B C+ A
2. Bucks- Ben Rollins SG 6'5'' 200 20 A- C+ C- C+ C A
3. Hornets- Jackson Roberson SF 6'10'' 225 22 B- B- C B- C A
4. Pistons- Jarrett Jordan SF 6'8'' 223 19 C B C+ B C A
5. Clippers- Jacquez Knight PG 6'3'' 192 19 B- C+ B- C+ C A

Re-order

1) Jacquez Knight PG 20 6'3'' 192 B+ B B B C A - 7 points
2) David Walker PF 20 6'11'' 235 A- C- C- A- B- B - 4 points
3) Ben Rollins SG 21 6'5'' 203 A- B- C B- C+ B - 3 points
4) Jarrett Jordan SF 20 6'8'' 223 C+ A- C A- C A - 2 points
5) Jackson Roberson SF 23 6'10'' 225 B- B- C B- C C - 1 point

2018

1. Orlando - Stephen Flint PF 6'11'' 229 22 B D D B+ C+ A
2. Washington - Marquell Rodgers PF 6'10'' 245 18 B- C- B- B- C+ A
3. Detroit - Vince McCracken SG 6'5'' 203 20 B+ C+ C C+ C A
4. Utah - Tyrone Keane PF 7'0'' 245 19 C B C B C+ A
5. Atlanta - Alex Jackson PG 6'5'' 208 21 B+ C B C+ C A

Re-order

1) Vince McCracken SG 20 6'5'' 203 A- B- C+ B- C A - 6 points
2) Marquell Rodgers PF 18 6'10'' 245 B C- B- B B- A - 4 points
3) Stephen Flint PF 22 6'11'' 229 B+ D D- B+ B- A - 3 points
4) Alex Jackson PG 21 6'5'' 208 A- C B B+ C B - 2.5 points
5) Tyrone Keane PF 19 7'0'' 245 C B+ C B+ C+ A - 1 point


Results

#1 - 37 points
#2 - 30.5 points
#3 - 40.5 points
#4 - 24.5 points
#5 - 32.5 points

Analysis

According to this formula, the third pick has been the most successful in BBS drafts. The only #3 pick that is a true bust is Jackson Roberson and Dez Ford hasn't developed that well, but was part of a weak draft.

The #4 pick has been incredibly weak. However, interestingly enough, there haven't been any real busts selected here. Broderick Hayes and his turnover issues may cause him to become one, but his ratings have gone up since he was drafted.

Overall, the top-5 picks in general have yielded very few busts and after reading this article, Spencer may change that fact.

[Simkin]

Impressive. BTW I have the sensation that in RL #3 is usually a great position to draft.

[aar]

By the way, my re-ordering was based on my opinions of who got ranked where

[Play]

1) Perry Jones SF 27 7'0'' 230 B+ A- B+ A+ B+ C - 5 points
2) Derrick Favors PF 27 6'10'' 249 A- C- D B+ A- D - 4.5 points
3) Brandon Knight PG 27 6'3'' 199 B- A- A A- C C - 3 points
4) Alec Burks SG 27 6'6'' 197 B+ A C A- C B - 2.5 points
5) Travis Leslie SG 28 6'4'' 209 A- B- C A C+ C - 1 point

Ill take Leslie over Knight and Burks

good article though

[aar]

Subjective, but that was the hardest draft to compile

[Jordan]

Mar 14, 2011 13:39:45 GMT -5 Play said:

1) Perry Jones SF 27 7'0'' 230 B+ A- B+ A+ B+ C - 5 points
2) Derrick Favors PF 27 6'10'' 249 A- C- D B+ A- D - 4.5 points
3) Brandon Knight PG 27 6'3'' 199 B- A- A A- C C - 3 points
4) Alec Burks SG 27 6'6'' 197 B+ A C A- C B - 2.5 points
5) Travis Leslie SG 28 6'4'' 209 A- B- C A C+ C - 1 point

Ill take Leslie over Knight and Burks

good article though

I'll take Burks over Perry and Leslie

[aar]

Mar 14, 2011 13:57:53 GMT -5 Jordan said:

Mar 14, 2011 13:39:45 GMT -5 Play said:

Ill take Leslie over Knight and Burks

good article though

I'll take Burks over Perry and Leslie

Would you also take a hamburger over a steak?

[Simkin]

Mar 14, 2011 13:57:53 GMT -5 Jordan said:

Mar 14, 2011 13:39:45 GMT -5 Play said:

Ill take Leslie over Knight and Burks

good article though

I'll take Burks over Perry and Leslie

Wow

[Jordan]

Mar 14, 2011 13:58:41 GMT -5 aar said:

Mar 14, 2011 13:57:53 GMT -5 Jordan said:

I'll take Burks over Perry and Leslie

Would you also take a hamburger over a steak?

turkey burger > kobe beef

[brophdog88]

Re-order

1. Jonas Valanciunas PF 25 6'11'' 260 A B- C A- A C - 6 points
2. Fab Melo C 26 7'0'' 274 B+ D+ D A- A- A - 4 points
3. Austin Rivers PG 25 6'4'' 179 B- A B A C C - 3 points
4. Quincy Miller SF 25 6'10'' 233 B+ C A- C+ B+ B - 2 points
5. Tobias Harris PF 26 6'11'' 240 B+ C+ C B- B D - 1 points

Rivers is better than Fab

[greeme]

Mar 14, 2011 13:57:53 GMT -5 Jordan said:

Mar 14, 2011 13:39:45 GMT -5 Play said:

Ill take Leslie over Knight and Burks

good article though

I'll take Burks over Perry and Leslie

I'll take knight over perry
If you don't believe me just post a perry for knight trade and see if I confirm

[aar]

Mar 14, 2011 14:08:52 GMT -5 @brophdog88 said:

Re-order

1. Jonas Valanciunas PF 25 6'11'' 260 A B- C A- A C - 6 points
2. Fab Melo C 26 7'0'' 274 B+ D+ D A- A- A - 4 points
3. Austin Rivers PG 25 6'4'' 179 B- A B A C C - 3 points
4. Quincy Miller SF 25 6'10'' 233 B+ C A- C+ B+ B - 2 points
5. Tobias Harris PF 26 6'11'' 240 B+ C+ C B- B D - 1 points

Rivers is better than Fab

That was another one that I was on the fence over. Personally, I like Melo better, but it was razor thin

[brophdog88]

Mar 14, 2011 14:09:57 GMT -5 greeme said:

Mar 14, 2011 13:57:53 GMT -5 Jordan said:

I'll take Burks over Perry and Leslie

I'll take knight over perry
If you don't believe me just post a perry for knight trade and see if I confirm

well, you suck, only GM in the league that would do that

[brophdog88]

Mar 14, 2011 14:12:15 GMT -5 aar said:

Mar 14, 2011 14:08:52 GMT -5 @brophdog88 said:

Re-order

1. Jonas Valanciunas PF 25 6'11'' 260 A B- C A- A C - 6 points
2. Fab Melo C 26 7'0'' 274 B+ D+ D A- A- A - 4 points
3. Austin Rivers PG 25 6'4'' 179 B- A B A C C - 3 points
4. Quincy Miller SF 25 6'10'' 233 B+ C A- C+ B+ B - 2 points
5. Tobias Harris PF 26 6'11'' 240 B+ C+ C B- B D - 1 points

Rivers is better than Fab

That was another one that I was on the fence over. Personally, I like Melo better, but it was razor thin

Melo sims meh, and Rivers at SG is deadly, as a PG, Rivers is awful though

[greeme]

Mar 14, 2011 14:12:17 GMT -5 @brophdog88 said:

Mar 14, 2011 14:09:57 GMT -5 greeme said:

I'll take knight over perry
If you don't believe me just post a perry for knight trade and see if I confirm

well, you suck, only GM in the league that would do that

You are not too bright, are you?