Post by greeme on Feb 14, 2011 12:06:43 GMT -5
The contract year
Which teams are most likely to get cyd within the next two years? Seven gms will be fighting for their BBS life in the next two years. Two gms in the East this year will try to improve their team enough to make the playoffs. Next year there could be as many as four (!!) teams in the West who will be in their contract year. Given all the talent in the West there is a good chance that at least one, if not two, gms will get cyd.
Note – guys who already show up as resigned are listed as under contract.
New York Knicks
Seasons w/o 42 wins or making playoffs - 2014 - 22-60, 2015 - 21-61
First round picks in the next 2 years – Knicks 2016, Clippers 2016, Knicks 2017, Clippers 2017
Players under contract for 2016 - 4 players - $ 24553974
Resign offers - Dexter Pittman, Leon Powe, Wesley Witherspoon
Almost no chance of getting cyd. Two very good players in Demar and Fields. Ryan Harrow is just one good tc away from making them very good from 1-3. They have plenty of cap room and a top pick in this draft to get frontcourt talent. The only question is if they will try to compete this year or try to get another good pick next year and have 2 bites at the fa apple. And if all that wasn't enough they have two more things going for them, they are in the East and no other team in the East will be trying to make their cy next year besides the Knicks. Almost no chance of getting cyd. Did I say that already? It bears repeating.
Chance of getting cyd – 5%
NO Hornets
Seasons w/o 42 wins or making playoffs - 2014 - 23-59 2015 - 37-45
First round picks in the next 2 years – Jazz 2016, Hornets 2016, Hornets 2017
Players under contract for 2016 - 8 players - $51791767
Resign offers - Tristan Thompson
They are in a great position to make their cy. They have young, improving talents such as Christmas, Walker, Beal and Westbrook. They need a big guy who can rebound and block shots but they should either be able to draft one or trade their two picks (11th and 12th in the draft for one). They would probably like to resign Plumlee and Harris, two players who played significant minutes for them last year, but will not be extremely hurt if neither resign.
Chance of getting cyd – 10%
Houston Rockets
Seasons w/o 42 wins or making playoffs - 2014 - 36-46, 2015 - 35-47
First round picks in the next 2 years – Suns 2016, Rockets 2016, Trailblazers 2016, Lakers 2016, 76ers 2017, Rockets 2017, Pistons 2017, Lakers 2017
Players under contract for 2016 - 11 players - $ 47991942
Resign offers - Anderson Varejao, Ersan Ilyasova, Josh Howard
Since they have 11 players under contract and 4 picks they can't accept any resign offers without forfeiting a pick. Except for their own pick, none of the other three picks is in the lottery so they might be better off moving them. They have a bunch of young talent, Rivers, Burks, Morozov, Harris and Miller. I don't think that that young nucleus will develop fast enough to save them from their cy. They might have to trade either Rivers or Burks in order to be able to make their cy. On the positive side, if they do trade either of those two they will almost certainly get enough talent in return to make their cy.
Chance of getting cyd – 20%
Utah Jazz
Seasons w/o 42 wins or making playoffs - 2014 - 28-54, 2015 - 37-45
First round picks in the next 2 years – Jazz 2018
Players under contract for 2016 - 7 players - $39223005
Resign offers - Jason Maxiell, Dominique Jones
It is very hard to see this team improving. They have no first rounder. They do have Deshaun Thomas who should improve but if Maxiell declines that will be a major blow to this team. The most important signing of this offseason will be Kyrie Irving. If he doesn't resign the Jazz are as good as done for. On the bright side there is every likelihood that he will indeed resign. Even assuming that he does resign the Jazz will need improvement from him to be a playoff contender. The Jazz are in the ultracompetitive west and will have a hard time making their cy. Even though Irving is a superstar they might be better off trading him for 2 older players who give them a better chance to compete for a playoff spot.
Chance of getting cyd – 50%
Orlando Magic
Seasons w/o 42 wins or making playoffs - 2013 - 27-55, 2014 - 33-49, 2015 - 35-47
First round picks in the next 2 years – Nets 2016, magic 2016, Nets 2017, Magic 2017, Warriors 2017, Nuggets 2017, Timberwolves 2017
Players under contract for 2016 - 6 players - $ 49768392
Resign offers -
The Magic gm has his work cut out for him. He has a great backcourt threesome but they have very little upfront. A key for them will be to resign Chris Singleton. Not a great defensive player and not worth a max offer. The Magic though will probably not take any risks and max him because they are in their cy. His bigger challenge will be turning his 6 first rounders into one or two good big men. If he doesn't do that he probably won't make it.
Chance of getting cyd – 50%
Boston Celtics
Seasons w/o 42 wins or making playoffs - 2013 - 37-45, 2014 - 25-57, 2015 - 24-58
First round picks in the next 2 years – Celtics 2016, Bobcats 2016, Hawks 2016, Nuggets 2016, Celtics 2017, Suns 2017
Players under contract for 2016 - 11 players - $ 60501531
Resign offers - Greg Monroe, Kawhi Leonard
They have two of the top 5 projected picks. The downside is that even the top 2 picks won't help them compete this year. They will have little choice but to trade one or both of their picks for top players. The good news is that they have two big expirings in Cook and Monroe to package with their picks. The bad news is that they might have the least talent in the league. With the exception of Dwight Stone, it is possible that none of their players would even start for the majority of the teams in the league. Still the combination of top picks and expiring gives them a shot.
Chance of getting cyd – 50%
Denver Nuggets
Seasons w/o 42 wins or making playoffs - 2014 - 41-41, 2015 - 28-54
First round picks in the next 2 years – none
Players under contract for 2016 - 5 players - $ 54796812
Resign offers – Tiny Gallon, JJ Redick
In addition to the players they have under contract they should get Quincy Pondexter in a tradeback from the Pacers. This team is in significant trouble, especially considering the talent level in the West and all the other West teams which have to make their cy in the next 2 years. They do have Gerald Wallace, who carried the Mavericks on his back for most of the year. They also have Brandon Knight and Amir Johnson. On the negative side they have no draft picks and must hope for improvement from Sibert and Oakley in order to be competitive. They might actually have a better chance this year than next bc Wallace and Johnson won't be getting any younger. In order to be competitive they must trade for or sign with their mle a shooting guard and a big man who can play defense.
Chance of getting cyd – 55%