Individual Player Advanced Stats (2024, Day 80)

[repole ಠ_ಠ]

This is true, for the most part. The thing is, there IS value in a volume scorer. As bad as Antoine Walker was, he was still on some Celtics teams that had above average offenses. A volume scorer allows other role players to get open looks and not have to jack up shots they're not comfortable with.

You can take a high volume, low efficiency guy (Antoine Walker) and surround him with a bunch of low volume, high efficiency players (Shane Battier types) and have a solid offense. If you take Walker out of that equation though, the low volume guys have to start putting up more shots, and chances are your offense doesn't actually get any better. So while I agree that an inefficient scorer isn't ideal in any sense, they can present value to certain situations.

[repole ಠ_ಠ]

i agree that as far as the team rankings Offensive rebound+missed FG = 0 but the player that missed should have a negative value bc of the missed shot and the player rebounding should have a positive value.

That's exactly what I was saying.

you still didn't write what their relative value is. Do you think an offense rebound has no value because it merely preserves possession? Do you think a defender causing a missed shot has no value merely bc an offensive rebound was grabbed? I agree with you that a steal equals rebound + causing a missed shot. I still think an offensive rebound = defensive rebound. the ball is in the air and whoever gets it claims possession for their team. it doesn't matter who had it before. Even though it isn't technically a change of possession it is treated as such as far as the shot clock being reset. I'm not giving the rebounder any credit for causing the missed shot just for getting the ball that was "up for grabs". If it would be easier conceptually it could be looked up as the offensive team giving up possession and the defensive team gaining possession (or the offensive team regaining possession) as two seperate things. In a steal they are one, the offensive team gives up possession and the defensive team takes possession in the same action. That is why a steal is more valuable than a rebound and equals the rebound + the worth of the defender causing a missed shot

-Where did I say an offensive rebound has no value? An offensive rebound is roughly equal to the opposite of what a missed FG is equal, which is roughly equal to a possession (I'm not going to get into why this is roughly, go read Basketball on Paper if you want to know the exact details).
-But by saying oRbd=dRbd, you ARE giving the defensive rebounder credit for causing the missed shot. On offense, the rebounder gets the entire credit for starting, basically (again not technically), new possession. On defense the rebounder gets PART of the credit for starting a new possession. I can't make that any clearer.
-It doesn't really matter if you always give the defender credit for causing a missed shot (and then multiplied it by the percentage of times that a missed shot is rebounded by their team), or only give them credit when it's actually rebounded. It all evens out.
I've given their relative value, I just haven't given exact value. I'm not going to go into how to split credit for a defensive rebound, again read Basketball on Paper and the section on dRtg if you wan't the details. I've had this rebounding argument 100 times (the first time I had it I was on your side of "a rebound is a rebound," but reading Basketball on Paper has convinced me otherwise.

but no formula is all inclusive. It admittedly has no man to man defense rating. and what about the player that set a pick that caused the player to be free to hit an "unassisted" shot? and what about the fact that the defender was sagging on my center bc they don't want him to get the ball so my pg got an open look? All this stuff can't be computed in the game, and maybe not even in real life, so i don't bother. if somebody wants to try to logically deduce which player got more help in getting his points then let him, if not let him just now that it hurts guys that create thier own shots

-More data is ALWAYS better. You're right, nothing is all inclusive, but you might as well include as much as possible.

I agree in principle but an assist is not the only way of making it easier to help a guy scoring and since there is no way to know who had help and who didn't then i would rather igonre it. What about factoring the relative defensive talents of the defending players? if i am at a position in which i have to deal with better defenders then that too has an impact.

-If you're going to say "well I don't know how much of an impact assists have so I'm not going to include it," you might as well not include points, because by the same token, you don't know how much credit someone deserves for making a shot (as you said, what if someone set a pick). There are plenty of things we don't KNOW based off box score stats, but we use them and estimates to the best of our ability.

that isn't what i meant. I don't think you decide who is best and then write the formula. I meant that if the best player in the league, let's say dean hollis, comes out as the 100th best player then you have to figure out why. Is it a flaw of the formula? of does dean hollis have a secret flaw that the formula bares? If there is something wrong with the formula then it should be adjusted.

-Well duh, but it depends on what type of formula you're building. If you're building a formula that is supposed to measure efficiency (like oRtg), and you think Antoine Walker is efficient because he's a multi time allstar, you don't change your formula because it turns out Antoine is rated sub-par. The point is also that if your formula makes tangible sense, you never have to worry about this, because it doesn't have to claim to be an all knowing formula.