Post by brophdog88 on Feb 9, 2012 22:05:47 GMT -5
Coming off my previous article, this will look at the players who could threaten to make the number one spot on the career scorers. These will be ranked in no particular order, and I will give my judgement at the end. Also to a lesser degree will look at the chances of making the top 10 list.
1st overall currently is Gerald Wallace. Wallace came into the league at 19, and played until he was 42, giving him a lot of games under his belt. First off, anybody that is going to make this list from out of the top 100 is most likely going to have to play until they turn 37, so the assumption will be all players play until at least that age, since I cant really guess when they retire.
10th overall was Ben Rollins, whose total is nearly 7,000 points off of Wallace’s, really though, he is not going to stay there past this year, since by the time you read this, Bradley Barker will likely have passed him and taken over the 10th spot. Right now as I type this, he is 100 points off taking the spot, which should take 5 or 6 games. But, I don’t care, this is all players individually, Im not gonna say oh since this guy will take the spot this guy wont…just if all other players fail, would this guy crack 36,780 points.
For all players who I consider a threat that were in the top 100 for scoring, I will give their totals as they stood prior to the season, for all players not in the top 100, I will estimate as closely as I can using the games played*career Points per Game average, then I will add in an estimate for this season based on the players current Points per game, and their total points if they play every game that remains for their respective teams. For an example, LeBron James scored 42,012 points in his career, by this method, the estimate I used would put him at 41,980 points, 32 points difference.
To the article
Bradley Barker: 35,801 points, 7,748 Points off first, 979 points off of 10th.
Prior to this season, Barker had scored a total of 35,801 points, over the course of 17 seasons, averaging 28.2 points a game. Thing is, his best scoring seasons were mainly at the beginning of his career, from 2032 on, Barker has been above that average just once, when he averaged 28.5 for the Bulls in 2035. Right now, at age 36 Barker is averaging just 19.1 games, and due to injury he has played in only 46 out of the Cavs 51 games, not a huge miss. Right now, Barker would have to score 6876 points between now and his retirement, his average of 28.2 points per game says he would need 243 games to do this, from this next game on, problem is, Barker is no longer a 28 ppg player, maybe a 20 ppg player, depending on where he ends up, and as such, the required 5 seasons is highly unlikely...its far more likely that he retires after this season, which 31 more games of 19.1 points a game places him somewhere around 37,200 points. This would be good for 9th, barely. If he were to put in another 82 game season next year, and average 20 points a game, the additional 1640 points would get him to 6th, but I feel as that would be his career ceiling, since players tend to get worse as they age.
Purnell Jackson: 32,925 points, 10,624 points out of first, 3,855 out of 2nd, as of the beginning of this season.
Purnell spent his first few seasons coming off the bench, which really hurt his chances of even making the top 10. He will not make the first spot overall, , it would require 9600 points before he retires to be clear, meaning he would have to play 400 more games whilst maintaining his current 24 points a game (well, its 23.9, but close enough, it isnt happening) pace. Meanwhile, he could make the bottom of the top 10 if, since his contract expires next year, if he plays out this season (37 games) and plays a full 82 games next season, he would need to average 24.7 points a game. Possible. Of course, though it may not be likely. I would have to bet against Purnell making the top 10, unless of course he chooses to stick around like Wallace did until he is 42, in which case he almost assuredly would.
Elgin Baylor: 32,068 Points, 11,481 off of first, 4712 out of 10th.
Baylor is the first player on here with a legitimate shot at taking down Wallace’s record, though it is unlikely. If he keeps up his pace this season, by the end of the year he will have scored 2903 points, at 35 and locked up for another year, with no signs of slowing down, Baylor would then be almost assured of grabbing a spot in the top 10, of course, barring injury, or a ridiculously bad TC. Scoring wise this seasoon would rank as his second best, which is astounding at 35, he is having an MVP like year. Baylor would need to average 34.9 points over the next 3 seasons in order to take down Wallace’s record...however, thats if he retires at 38, if he goes to 39, he would only need to average 26.1 points a game...and suddenly that record becomes attainable...to the point that I will say if Baylor does play until he is 39 I believe he will become the career leader in points scored in BBS history.
KC Jones ranks 46th on the list, but at 37, he has no chance at reaching number 10 even. he would need around 17 points a game, playing every game, playing through the maximum at 42.
Oscar Robertson: 25,777 points, 17,772 off of first, 11003 points off of 10th.
At just 31, Oscar Robertson is 17,772 points off of first place, which considering that he has already scored 25,777 points in 10 seasons, its really not that ridiculous to believe he could, if he plays til 38 say. As that is such a long span, given he will suffer injuries, of say on average 3 games a season, he would need to average just 28 points a game until he is 38. Now, of course thats not particularly easy, but, he does have a shot at number one, and really, should be a lock for a top 10 spot. As Oscar is locked up on contract until he is only 36, that is a possibility as to when he retires.
81 Albert Smith 25315
87 Hal Greer 24470
88 Bob Petit 24366
No chance for any of them
Jerry West 23964 points 19585 points out of first 12816 points out of 10th
West got a later start, so he falls well behind Oscar, and as such the odds of him reaching number one are much longer. He has an average points per game of 29.7 points, which he would need to maintain all the way until he turns 38 to break the record...and thats if he plays every game possible in each season. Probably not going to happen. He should be a lock to reach tenth though, and will go down as a top 5 player all time.
96 Hot Rod Hundley 23612
98 Wilt Chamberlain 23563
Hot Rod will not make it, and shockingly I do not believe Wilt will either. Bigs tend to age a bit rougher offensively, and Wilt is only averaging 23 right now. At 13,000+ off, and 33, he would need to play 6 more seasons and average around 25 points a game throughout...highly highly unlikely...and there is no chance he makes number 1.
Thats it for players in the top 100 for scoring, next up are the hypothetical possibilites.
I will not include rookies, though Bingo Smith clearly may find his way up here...regardless of his poor percentages, this is only about pure points, so he has a nice start with the 26 a game.
To reach the 43,459 point mark a player will most likely have to play around 1400 games minimum, which means he will need to play 18 seasons to reach that number, with 76 games worth of injury time. For the most part, this means any player that is going to make that number has to be no older than 21 when entiring the league (that way he hits 38 for his 18th year, counting on anything after 38...well, even counting on 38 ends that.)
I’ll lead things off with the least likely, but possible, player...for a player to make the list, I had to feel like they had a reasonable shot based on current performance, (aka, rookies and sophomores who are still developing and not already scoring at an elite rate–aka not KAJ–are excluded as there is too much uncertainty. It takes around 30 points a game for 18 seasons to reach the top of the list, and thats without missing games, its around 31 if you account for 72 games missed in an 18 season career (4 a season). Only the most prolific scorers, whose game should stand up to the fall off that results from old age truly have a shot.
All stats for this section are based off a projection of points the players will have at the end of this season, assuming the players will play the rest of their teams games this season, and, average 78 games a season for the rest of their career.
The players I deemed that it was possible (I’m sure that there are some more likely than Johnny Green, but I included him because he is barely off the top 100 all time scorers):
Chet Walker, Jeff Mullins, John Havlicek, Johnny Green, Jon McGlocklin, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Larry Jones, Levern Tart, Lou Hudson.
Clearly Larry Jones and KAJ are the only players with even a shot at doing this, 34.1 points for Larry isnt really out of the question considering his ratings and that he is consistently doing 36 ppg or more a year, KAJ is a big, so getting him to do that may be quite a bit more difficult, then again, he is kinda dominanting right now in just his second year, if he improves that Jump Shot you never know. This pretty much shows though Larry is a guaranteed Top 10 scorer, considering he only needs to average 24.4 points a game til 35 for that to happen.
Still just Larry and KAJ with a shot, gets easier obviously the longer they stick around. Chet Walker though jumps Glock and Hudson as the next most likely. Chet actually jumps KaJ in the race for top 10 likelihood.
Larry only needs 27.9 points a game til he is 38, very very possible, and at this point it looks like its only a matter of how long Larry sticks around, not whether he can put up the points. These 36 point per game seasons really help cover any fall of he may have happen in his mid to late 30's. Chet breaks clear of Hudson. Glocks time on the bench really hurt his chances.
I think you are starting to get the point, the older players obviously gain more, but Havs Glock Hudson and Tart all pretty much bunch together...none of them really have a great shot, Glock wont necessarily age well either since his outside shot is mediocre...look at G-Wall for an example of how athleticism fades...then again, if he sticks around for Wallace like longevity.
As the likelihood of any of these is slim I will just group them together...pretty much, any of these can possibly do it if they can keep in a starting lineup and not die off too quick, then again, that may be asking a ton, looking at how G-Wall died off, or Jason Paulson.
If I had to guess, I would bet Larry Jones takes the record, but, I would almost bet Baylor has it in him to take it first, and potentially set it just out of reach
1st overall currently is Gerald Wallace. Wallace came into the league at 19, and played until he was 42, giving him a lot of games under his belt. First off, anybody that is going to make this list from out of the top 100 is most likely going to have to play until they turn 37, so the assumption will be all players play until at least that age, since I cant really guess when they retire.
10th overall was Ben Rollins, whose total is nearly 7,000 points off of Wallace’s, really though, he is not going to stay there past this year, since by the time you read this, Bradley Barker will likely have passed him and taken over the 10th spot. Right now as I type this, he is 100 points off taking the spot, which should take 5 or 6 games. But, I don’t care, this is all players individually, Im not gonna say oh since this guy will take the spot this guy wont…just if all other players fail, would this guy crack 36,780 points.
For all players who I consider a threat that were in the top 100 for scoring, I will give their totals as they stood prior to the season, for all players not in the top 100, I will estimate as closely as I can using the games played*career Points per Game average, then I will add in an estimate for this season based on the players current Points per game, and their total points if they play every game that remains for their respective teams. For an example, LeBron James scored 42,012 points in his career, by this method, the estimate I used would put him at 41,980 points, 32 points difference.
To the article
Bradley Barker: 35,801 points, 7,748 Points off first, 979 points off of 10th.
Prior to this season, Barker had scored a total of 35,801 points, over the course of 17 seasons, averaging 28.2 points a game. Thing is, his best scoring seasons were mainly at the beginning of his career, from 2032 on, Barker has been above that average just once, when he averaged 28.5 for the Bulls in 2035. Right now, at age 36 Barker is averaging just 19.1 games, and due to injury he has played in only 46 out of the Cavs 51 games, not a huge miss. Right now, Barker would have to score 6876 points between now and his retirement, his average of 28.2 points per game says he would need 243 games to do this, from this next game on, problem is, Barker is no longer a 28 ppg player, maybe a 20 ppg player, depending on where he ends up, and as such, the required 5 seasons is highly unlikely...its far more likely that he retires after this season, which 31 more games of 19.1 points a game places him somewhere around 37,200 points. This would be good for 9th, barely. If he were to put in another 82 game season next year, and average 20 points a game, the additional 1640 points would get him to 6th, but I feel as that would be his career ceiling, since players tend to get worse as they age.
Purnell Jackson: 32,925 points, 10,624 points out of first, 3,855 out of 2nd, as of the beginning of this season.
Purnell spent his first few seasons coming off the bench, which really hurt his chances of even making the top 10. He will not make the first spot overall, , it would require 9600 points before he retires to be clear, meaning he would have to play 400 more games whilst maintaining his current 24 points a game (well, its 23.9, but close enough, it isnt happening) pace. Meanwhile, he could make the bottom of the top 10 if, since his contract expires next year, if he plays out this season (37 games) and plays a full 82 games next season, he would need to average 24.7 points a game. Possible. Of course, though it may not be likely. I would have to bet against Purnell making the top 10, unless of course he chooses to stick around like Wallace did until he is 42, in which case he almost assuredly would.
Elgin Baylor: 32,068 Points, 11,481 off of first, 4712 out of 10th.
Baylor is the first player on here with a legitimate shot at taking down Wallace’s record, though it is unlikely. If he keeps up his pace this season, by the end of the year he will have scored 2903 points, at 35 and locked up for another year, with no signs of slowing down, Baylor would then be almost assured of grabbing a spot in the top 10, of course, barring injury, or a ridiculously bad TC. Scoring wise this seasoon would rank as his second best, which is astounding at 35, he is having an MVP like year. Baylor would need to average 34.9 points over the next 3 seasons in order to take down Wallace’s record...however, thats if he retires at 38, if he goes to 39, he would only need to average 26.1 points a game...and suddenly that record becomes attainable...to the point that I will say if Baylor does play until he is 39 I believe he will become the career leader in points scored in BBS history.
KC Jones ranks 46th on the list, but at 37, he has no chance at reaching number 10 even. he would need around 17 points a game, playing every game, playing through the maximum at 42.
Oscar Robertson: 25,777 points, 17,772 off of first, 11003 points off of 10th.
At just 31, Oscar Robertson is 17,772 points off of first place, which considering that he has already scored 25,777 points in 10 seasons, its really not that ridiculous to believe he could, if he plays til 38 say. As that is such a long span, given he will suffer injuries, of say on average 3 games a season, he would need to average just 28 points a game until he is 38. Now, of course thats not particularly easy, but, he does have a shot at number one, and really, should be a lock for a top 10 spot. As Oscar is locked up on contract until he is only 36, that is a possibility as to when he retires.
81 Albert Smith 25315
87 Hal Greer 24470
88 Bob Petit 24366
No chance for any of them
Jerry West 23964 points 19585 points out of first 12816 points out of 10th
West got a later start, so he falls well behind Oscar, and as such the odds of him reaching number one are much longer. He has an average points per game of 29.7 points, which he would need to maintain all the way until he turns 38 to break the record...and thats if he plays every game possible in each season. Probably not going to happen. He should be a lock to reach tenth though, and will go down as a top 5 player all time.
96 Hot Rod Hundley 23612
98 Wilt Chamberlain 23563
Hot Rod will not make it, and shockingly I do not believe Wilt will either. Bigs tend to age a bit rougher offensively, and Wilt is only averaging 23 right now. At 13,000+ off, and 33, he would need to play 6 more seasons and average around 25 points a game throughout...highly highly unlikely...and there is no chance he makes number 1.
Thats it for players in the top 100 for scoring, next up are the hypothetical possibilites.
I will not include rookies, though Bingo Smith clearly may find his way up here...regardless of his poor percentages, this is only about pure points, so he has a nice start with the 26 a game.
To reach the 43,459 point mark a player will most likely have to play around 1400 games minimum, which means he will need to play 18 seasons to reach that number, with 76 games worth of injury time. For the most part, this means any player that is going to make that number has to be no older than 21 when entiring the league (that way he hits 38 for his 18th year, counting on anything after 38...well, even counting on 38 ends that.)
I’ll lead things off with the least likely, but possible, player...for a player to make the list, I had to feel like they had a reasonable shot based on current performance, (aka, rookies and sophomores who are still developing and not already scoring at an elite rate–aka not KAJ–are excluded as there is too much uncertainty. It takes around 30 points a game for 18 seasons to reach the top of the list, and thats without missing games, its around 31 if you account for 72 games missed in an 18 season career (4 a season). Only the most prolific scorers, whose game should stand up to the fall off that results from old age truly have a shot.
All stats for this section are based off a projection of points the players will have at the end of this season, assuming the players will play the rest of their teams games this season, and, average 78 games a season for the rest of their career.
The players I deemed that it was possible (I’m sure that there are some more likely than Johnny Green, but I included him because he is barely off the top 100 all time scorers):
Chet Walker, Jeff Mullins, John Havlicek, Johnny Green, Jon McGlocklin, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Larry Jones, Levern Tart, Lou Hudson.
If they all retire at 36:
[/center]| Age right now | Team | Name | Points per Season for #1 | Points per Game for #1 | Points per Season for #10 | Points per Game for #10 |
| 27 | Bobcats | Larry Jones | 2,657 | 34.1 | 1,905 | 24.4 |
| 22 | Nuggets | Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | 2,687 | 34.4 | 2,203 | 28.2 |
| 25 | Lakers | Lou Hudson | 3,165 | 40.6 | 2,550 | 32.7 |
| 26 | Hornets | Jon McGlocklin | 3,227 | 41.4 | 2,550 | 32.7 |
| 29 | Heat | Chet Walker | 3,314 | 42.5 | 2,347 | 30.1 |
| 27 | Nets | Levern Tart | 3,322 | 42.6 | 2,570 | 32.9 |
| 27 | Bulls | Jeff Mullins | 3,470 | 44.5 | 2,718 | 34.8 |
| 29 | Nets | John Havlicek | 3,529 | 45.2 | 2,562 | 32.8 |
| 35 | Trailblazers | Johnny Green | 18,248 | 233.9 | 11,479 | 147.2 |
Clearly Larry Jones and KAJ are the only players with even a shot at doing this, 34.1 points for Larry isnt really out of the question considering his ratings and that he is consistently doing 36 ppg or more a year, KAJ is a big, so getting him to do that may be quite a bit more difficult, then again, he is kinda dominanting right now in just his second year, if he improves that Jump Shot you never know. This pretty much shows though Larry is a guaranteed Top 10 scorer, considering he only needs to average 24.4 points a game til 35 for that to happen.
If they all retire at 37:
| Age right now | Team | Name | Points per Season for #1 | Points per Game for #1 | Points per Season for #10 | Points per Game for #10 |
| 27 | Bobcats | Larry Jones | 2,391 | 30.7 | 1,714 | 22.0 |
| 22 | Nuggets | Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | 2,508 | 32.2 | 2,057 | 26.4 |
| 29 | Heat | Chet Walker | 2,900 | 37.2 | 2,054 | 26.3 |
| 25 | Lakers | Lou Hudson | 2,902 | 37.2 | 2,338 | 30.0 |
| 26 | Hornets | Jon McGlocklin | 2,934 | 37.6 | 2,318 | 29.7 |
| 27 | Nets | Levern Tart | 2,990 | 38.3 | 2,313 | 29.7 |
| 29 | Nets | John Havlicek | 3,088 | 39.6 | 2,242 | 28.7 |
| 27 | Bulls | Jeff Mullins | 3,123 | 40.0 | 2,446 | 31.4 |
| 35 | Trailblazers | Johnny Green | 9,124 | 117.0 | 5,739 | 73.6 |
Still just Larry and KAJ with a shot, gets easier obviously the longer they stick around. Chet Walker though jumps Glock and Hudson as the next most likely. Chet actually jumps KaJ in the race for top 10 likelihood.
If they all retire at 38:
[/center]| Age right now | Team | Name | Points per Season for #1 | Points per Game for #1 | Points per Season for #10 | Points per Game for #10 |
| 27 | Bobcats | Larry Jones | 2,174 | 27.9 | 1,558 | 20.0 |
| 22 | Nuggets | Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | 2,351 | 30.1 | 1,928 | 24.7 |
| 29 | Heat | Chet Walker | 2,578 | 33.1 | 1,826 | 23.4 |
| 25 | Lakers | Lou Hudson | 2,678 | 34.3 | 2,158 | 27.7 |
| 26 | Hornets | Jon McGlocklin | 2,689 | 34.5 | 2,125 | 27.2 |
| 27 | Nets | Levern Tart | 2,718 | 34.8 | 2,103 | 27.0 |
| 29 | Nets | John Havlicek | 2,745 | 35.2 | 1,992 | 25.5 |
| 27 | Bulls | Jeff Mullins | 2,839 | 36.4 | 2,224 | 28.5 |
| 35 | Trailblazers | Johnny Green | 6,083 | 78.0 | 3,826 | 49.1 |
Larry only needs 27.9 points a game til he is 38, very very possible, and at this point it looks like its only a matter of how long Larry sticks around, not whether he can put up the points. These 36 point per game seasons really help cover any fall of he may have happen in his mid to late 30's. Chet breaks clear of Hudson. Glocks time on the bench really hurt his chances.
If they all retire at 39:
[/center]| Age right now | Team | Name | Points per Season for #1 | Points per Game for #1 | Points per Season for #10 | Points per Game for #10 |
| 27 | Bobcats | Larry Jones | 1,992 | 25.5 | 1,428 | 18.3 |
| 22 | Nuggets | Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | 2,213 | 28.4 | 1,815 | 23.3 |
| 29 | Heat | Chet Walker | 2,320 | 29.7 | 1,643 | 21.1 |
| 29 | Nets | John Havlicek | 2,470 | 31.7 | 1,793 | 23.0 |
| 26 | Hornets | Jon McGlocklin | 2,482 | 31.8 | 1,962 | 25.2 |
| 25 | Lakers | Lou Hudson | 2,487 | 31.9 | 2,004 | 25.7 |
| 27 | Nets | Levern Tart | 2,492 | 31.9 | 1,928 | 24.7 |
| 27 | Bulls | Jeff Mullins | 2,603 | 33.4 | 2,039 | 26.1 |
| 35 | Trailblazers | Johnny Green | 4,562 | 58.5 | 2,870 | 36.8 |
I think you are starting to get the point, the older players obviously gain more, but Havs Glock Hudson and Tart all pretty much bunch together...none of them really have a great shot, Glock wont necessarily age well either since his outside shot is mediocre...look at G-Wall for an example of how athleticism fades...then again, if he sticks around for Wallace like longevity.
If they all retire at 40:
[/center]| Age right now | Team | Name | Points per Season for #1 | Points per Game for #1 | Points per Season for #10 | Points per Game for #10 |
| 27 | Bobcats | Larry Jones | 1,839 | 23.6 | 1,319 | 16.9 |
| 22 | Nuggets | Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | 2,090 | 26.8 | 1,714 | 22.0 |
| 29 | Heat | Chet Walker | 2,109 | 27.0 | 1,494 | 19.2 |
| 29 | Nets | John Havlicek | 2,246 | 28.8 | 1,630 | 20.9 |
| 27 | Nets | Levern Tart | 2,300 | 29.5 | 1,779 | 22.8 |
| 26 | Hornets | Jon McGlocklin | 2,305 | 29.6 | 1,822 | 23.4 |
| 25 | Lakers | Lou Hudson | 2,321 | 29.8 | 1,870 | 24.0 |
| 27 | Bulls | Jeff Mullins | 2,402 | 30.8 | 1,882 | 24.1 |
| 35 | Trailblazers | Johnny Green | 3,650 | 46.8 | 2,296 | 29.4 |
If they all retire at 41:
[/center]| Age right now | Team | Name | Points per Season for #1 | Points per Game for #1 | Points per Season for #10 | Points per Game for #10 |
| 27 | Bobcats | Larry Jones | 1,708 | 21.9 | 1,224 | 15.7 |
| 29 | Heat | Chet Walker | 1,933 | 24.8 | 1,369 | 17.6 |
| 22 | Nuggets | Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | 1,980 | 25.4 | 1,624 | 20.8 |
| 29 | Nets | John Havlicek | 2,058 | 26.4 | 1,494 | 19.2 |
| 27 | Nets | Levern Tart | 2,136 | 27.4 | 1,652 | 21.2 |
| 26 | Hornets | Jon McGlocklin | 2,151 | 27.6 | 1,700 | 21.8 |
| 25 | Lakers | Lou Hudson | 2,176 | 27.9 | 1,753 | 22.5 |
| 27 | Bulls | Jeff Mullins | 2,231 | 28.6 | 1,747 | 22.4 |
| 35 | Trailblazers | Johnny Green | 3,041 | 39.0 | 1,913 | 24.5 |
If they all retire at 42:
[/center]| Age right now | Team | Name | Points per Season for #1 | Points per Game for #1 | Points per Season for #10 | Points per Game for #10 |
| 27 | Bobcats | Larry Jones | 1,594 | 20.4 | 1,143 | 14.7 |
| 29 | Heat | Chet Walker | 1,785 | 22.9 | 1,264 | 16.2 |
| 22 | Nuggets | Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | 1,881 | 24.1 | 1,542 | 19.8 |
| 29 | Nets | John Havlicek | 1,900 | 24.4 | 1,379 | 17.7 |
| 27 | Nets | Levern Tart | 1,993 | 25.6 | 1,542 | 19.8 |
| 26 | Hornets | Jon McGlocklin | 2,017 | 25.9 | 1,594 | 20.4 |
| 25 | Lakers | Lou Hudson | 2,048 | 26.3 | 1,650 | 21.2 |
| 27 | Bulls | Jeff Mullins | 2,082 | 26.7 | 1,631 | 20.9 |
| 35 | Trailblazers | Johnny Green | 2,607 | 33.4 | 1,640 | 21.0 |
As the likelihood of any of these is slim I will just group them together...pretty much, any of these can possibly do it if they can keep in a starting lineup and not die off too quick, then again, that may be asking a ton, looking at how G-Wall died off, or Jason Paulson.
If I had to guess, I would bet Larry Jones takes the record, but, I would almost bet Baylor has it in him to take it first, and potentially set it just out of reach
